Sherlock fandom over time, on AO3
Fandom culture is a magical river of creation and creators. As some of you might have seen in destinationtoast's slides for Sherlock Seattle (#106), Series 3 did not destroy the Sherlock Fandom, at least in terms of works archived. Since Toasty shared the easy-to-read works per month graph, above is the much spikier works per day, according to data I scrapped in mid December (interact with it here). The grey vertical lines mark year boundaries, the years are confusing centred under June 30th of each.
The works posted per day are in blue, creators posting per day in red. The red is always very close to the blue as there are only ever a few people posting mutiple works in one day! The yellow line shows the number of pseudos posting to the Sherlock fandom for the first time ever, and the green line is the number of final works per day, meaning that day is the last time a creator posted a Sherlock work before December, 17th, 2014. So the green creeping upwards at the end doesn’t mean people were leaving fandom in droves, it’s just an artifact of, well, the present.
The most productive day ever is Valentines day, 2014! That’s the tallest spike with the little dots at the tip, showing that nearly 200 works were posted by more than 180 creators, which is around three times the average for that month. This probably has something to do with the content of series 3…
Creator Accrual and Creator Attrition
Despite substantial bumps and dips in works posted, the rate of new creators is very steady (plot here): around 30% of contributors per week are new to the fandom.
But series three has had some negative impact: the six month that followed the initial airing showed more creator attrition (last works by contributors) than creator accrual (first works) for the first time since the show began. The difference in rates is small but statistically significant (sampled by week.) Note: this calculation presumes that if a contributor hasn’t posted since July 1st, 2014, they have left the fandom, which future analyses may challenge.
Sherlock Works per creator
The 65000+ AO3 works in the Sherlock fandom have been posted under some 15000+ pseudos, so that averages to about 4 works per creator. But it is hardly that simple (plot here). As might be expected with such a high rate of new contributors, nearly half of the Sherlock creators only contribute 1 work, and the distribution plummets from there. Less than 10% of creators contributed over 10 or more works, less than 1% have posted more than 45.
The next stats post gets into the question of who is dropping off when, as related to a question raised by @ficklepig about how many pre-series3 contributors fell away with the new material of series 3.